A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
