Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
