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Amid the considerable disarray following the US strikes on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and seize its president – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

It is widely rejected the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, considering the potential next target.